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Understanding Recession Indicators

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April 26, 2022

In my market outlook going into this year, I suspected the year in terms of financial markets would be characterized by a road trip - there would be pits stops along the way, some expected, and some not so expected;

  • Interest Rate Hikes – Expected
  • War in Ukraine – Unexpected

While there has been no shortage of news and internet headlines discussing the headwinds we have faced thus far such as interest rate hikes, soaring CPI, yield curves (inverting?) and the war in Ukraine, it is important to always get back to the fundamentals. There is a reason why the windshield in your car is larger than the rear-view mirror; while it’s important to know where you’re coming from it is far more important to know where you are going.

Attached is a visually pleasing and hopefully insightful piece that I have put together discussing some key recession indicators that are closely followed. I have included comments and graphs to help shed some light on them individually in hopes to provide you comfort and context during this volatile period in financial markets.

As always, if you have any questions or comments I would encourage you to reach out to me directly.

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