How to Survive a Bear Attack
“The best way of being kind to bears is not to be very close to them.”
– Margaret Atwood
The U.S. economy surprisingly contracted by 1.4%, on a seasonally adjusted and annualized basis, for the first quarter of 2022. The consensus expectation for Q1 GDP, according to Bloomberg, was for a 1% gain, much slower than Q4 2021 GDP of 6.9%. While the number was negative, there were some positive components to the final number—such as strong imports, services, and purchases of durable goods (goods that have the ability to be kept for a period of time), which indicate a healthy consumer. A slowdown in U.S. economic growth has been long expected but the surprising negative period has led to increased chatter of a recession, broadly defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth and the potential of an equity bear market along with it.
We have four simple rules that we use as a framework during these periods of heightened volatility. They are loosely based on advice in the event one comes face to face with a bear in the wild. Click on the link to read on.